It appears the U.S. president is beginning to realize that the real obstacle to ending the war in Ukraine lies not in Kyiv, but in Moscow. Day by day, signs grow that Donald Trump is reconsidering America's approach to the conflict. While his initial push for a quick resolution has faltered, the key development is his apparent recognition that Vladimir Putin—not Ukraine—is the main force resisting peace.
Back on March 11, Trump called for an immediate, unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine agreed. Russia did not. Although U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff was warmly received in Moscow, Putin offered only the possibility of a limited ceasefire—one contingent on new demands. Just this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s maximalist terms, including the outlandish claims that Ukraine must “demilitarize” and “de-Nazify.”
Even as he engages in dialogue with the U.S., Putin continues to strike Ukrainian cities. He has ignored Trump’s repeated appeals to halt the violence, including a brutal ballistic missile attack on Sumy during Palm Sunday that killed at least 36 civilians. This time, however, Trump’s frustration with Putin has gone beyond angry posts. On Wednesday, he approved a $50 million military aid package for Ukraine, shortly after signing a deal for joint exploitation of Ukraine’s critical mineral resources.
The U.S. now appears to be stepping back from its previous mediation role. A State Department spokesperson made this clear on Friday: “We are not going to fly around the world at the drop of a hat to mediate meetings; it is now between the two parties. It’s going to be up to them.” The abrupt dismissal of National Security Adviser Mike Waltz also aligns with this shift. Waltz, a known hawk on Russia, had just urged Trump to impose harsh sanctions unless Putin agreed to an immediate ceasefire.
Removing Waltz—who was mistrusted by Trump's political base—may give the president the political space to adjust course and, ironically, move toward the very policy Waltz had endorsed.
Of course, all of this could prove to be wishful thinking. Trump is nothing if not unpredictable. But his recent cordial meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Pope Francis’s funeral in the Vatican may have marked a turning point. He may now fully grasp that the Kremlin, not Kyiv, stands in the way of the “ultimate deal” he longs to broker.
Two key indicators will reveal whether U.S. policy has truly shifted. First, will the $50 million weapons shipment be followed by further military aid? Second, will Trump endorse Senator Lindsey Graham’s bill proposing severe sanctions on Russia? The answers will soon show whether Putin has finally alienated Donald Trump.
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